Voting for Germany’s new Bundestag election ended at 6 pm local time on February 23rd. Exit polls show that the coalition party composed of the CDU and the CSU leads other political parties with a vote rate of about 29%; the right-wing populist AfD has a vote rate of about 19.5% and is expected to become the second largest party in the Bundestag; the SPD of the current chancellor Scholz has a vote rate of about 16%, ranking third.
Scholz has now admitted defeat in the election and congratulated Merz, chairman of the CDU and chancellor candidate of the Union Party. Merz, who is expected to become Germany's new chancellor, declared victory. Weidel, chairman of the AfD, expressed her willingness to participate in the federal government.
Compared with the results of the last general election in 2021, the SPD suffered a major setback and its vote share dropped significantly.
Other parties that are almost certain to enter the Bundestag include the Bündnis 90/die Grünen and the Die Linke. The FDP, which previously governed in coalition with the SPD and the Bündnis 90/die Grünen, and the newly formed BSW are hovering around the "threshold" for entering the Bundestag, which is 5% of the vote.
The preliminary results of the election will be announced today.
Germany’s new electoral law stipulates that the number of seats in the Bundestag is 630. The Bundestag has legislative powers and is responsible for electing the Federal Chancellor.
The last federal election of the German Bundestag was held on September 26th, 2021. According to the regulation that elections are held every four years, this election should have taken place in September this year. However, due to the early collapse of the "traffic light" ruling coalition formed by the SPD, the FDP, and the Bündnis 90/die Grünen at the end of last year, after a vote of confidence and confirmation by the president, the election of the new Bundestag was advanced to February 23rd.
Post-election challenges
German media commented that the key to this election is not only which party gets the most votes, but the composition of the future government. Negotiations to form a coalition government will determine the future governing pattern.
In the current Bundestag election, there are four political parties that have attracted the most attention from the German people, namely the CDU/CSU, the SPD, the Bündnis 90/die Grünen, and the AfD, a populist party with the strongest momentum of growth in recent years.
German media believe that since Merz has repeatedly claimed that he will not cooperate with the AfD, there is a high probability that two government structures will be formed: "CDU/CSU + SPD" or "CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/die Grünen".
However, due to differences on immigration and economic issues, and Merz has publicly stated that he will cancel some policies of the Scholz government after becoming prime minister, this has made it more difficult to form a "CDU/CSU + SPD" government.
At the same time, if the CDU/CSU and the Bündnis 90/die Grünen were to jointly form a government, it is feared that the new government would, just like the "traffic light" coalition led by Scholz, eventually break up due to endless quarrels among the political parties.
At present, although the CDU/CSU won the election, the degree of victory was far from enough to support the establishment of a strong government. Therefore, for the CDU/CSU, the joy of winning the election should be very limited. If the CDU/CSU, SPD and Bündnis 90/die Grünen finally form a government, Germany is likely to enter another round of political turmoil and lose a historical opportunity for good development.
In addition, this election also has important international implications. Europe is facing geopolitical challenges, and the foreign policy changes of the new U.S. government have intensified Germany's strategic uncertainty. Germany must reassess its role within NATO and the EU. The composition of the new government will determine the development direction of Germany and even Europe.
It can be predicted that the German government led by Merz will try to maintain stable German-American relations as much as possible and will be more inclined to the United States in terms of economic strategy. The extent to which the German people and the parties in power with him can tolerate Merz's concession policy, and whether the United States appreciates it, will determine the direction and extent of the new German government's policies.
