"I don't feel any regret or relief (about resigning as party leader). I am about to start a new job." On April 9th local time, Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, officially announced his resignation as party leader, in fact announcing that he would participate in the upcoming presidential election.
The day before, South Korea's Acting President Han Duck-soo chaired a cabinet meeting and officially confirmed that the South Korean presidential election will be held on June 3rd this year. Candidate registration will be on May 11th, and public officials who wish to run for election must resign from their public office before May 4th. Since this election is held on an ad hoc basis, the president will take office immediately once he is confirmed to be elected, without the need for a transition period.
In the past few months, the leadership of the People Power Party, including Kwon Young-se, has shifted the focus of the public opinion struggle from "supporting Yoon" to "anti-Lee." However, the conservative media "JoongAng Ilbo" pointed out that there is still a lot of controversy within the party as to who will become the "anti-Lee" candidate. The key is that former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is facing trial for sedition, is not ready to leave the stage of history, but instead tries to continue to lead the party.
"Considering Yoon Suk Yeol's influence within the party, this presidential election will still be a showdown between Yoon Suk Yeol and Lee Jae-myung," said Kwon Ki-sik, vice chairman of the Northeast Asia Cooperation Committee of the Democratic Party of Korea.
On April 4th, Lee Jae-myung (center), leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, delivered a speech at the National Assembly regarding the Constitutional Court's announcement of the removal of then-President Yoon Seok-yeol, expressing his high respect and sincere gratitude to all the people who have protected South Korea's democratic republic system. Photo/IC
The melee under the shadow of Yoon Suk Yeol
After the impeachment verdict was announced on April 4th, although some people around the president told the media that they were "unexpected" and "confused", Yoon Suk Yeol was obviously well prepared and quickly took two measures.
That afternoon, Yoon Suk Yeol met with the party leadership led by Kwon Young-se, leader of the People Power Party, and Kweon Seong-dong, leader of the National Assembly caucus, at the presidential residence in Hannam-dong. Yoon Suk Yeol expressed his gratitude and guilt to them, and "gave instructions in person", asking Kwon Young-se to "make good preparations for the election with the party as the center and win the victory."
On the 6th, Yoon Suk Yeol issued a statement thanking the "National Defense Lawyers Group". This is a "support Yoon" group formed by his defense lawyer Seok Dong-hyun, with 100,000 active members, representing Yoon Suk Yeol's extreme supporters, which account for about 10% of the South Korean population.
After Yoon Suk Yeol was officially removed from the presidency, he spoke publicly only twice. Compared to his four-sentence "farewell" statement to the nation, his thank-you statement to the "National Defense Lawyers Group" was not only long but also extremely explicit. Yoon Suk Yeol explicitly mentioned the "first cheer" on the night of the group's founding on February 13th. At the rally that night, slogans such as "Make the Constitutional Court disappear" and "Eliminate Lee Jae-myung" were heard everywhere.
After fondly reviewing the actions taken by the group to oppose impeachment, Yoon Suk Yeol said he was "moved to tears" and encouraged supporters to maintain "faith and courage" and continue to "move forward", saying that he would "always stand by you". South Korean public opinion believes that Yoon is trying to maintain and mobilize the enthusiasm of his supporters to ensure that the "Yoon faction" candidates can stand out in the People Power Party's primary election.
Currently, the party's best candidate in the polls is Kim Moon-soo, the Minister of Employment and Labor appointed by Yoon Suk Yeol. He firmly opposes Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment and claims that martial law is "the president's helpless choice." However, there are also voices of opposition within the party that Kim Moon-soo is the most suitable choice for the conservative camp.
On the one hand, Yoon Suk Yeol's trial for sedition will be held simultaneously with the election campaign in the next 60 days; the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office, which is investigating Yoon Suk Yeol and Kim Keon-hee for interfering in the election, has also confirmed that it will summon Kim Keon-hee herself. As the prosecution unfolds, more and more "explosive" words and deeds of the Yoon couple may become hot topics in the election campaign. If a "supporting Yoon" candidate is chosen, the People Power Party will find it difficult to distance itself from Yoon Suk Yeol's misdeeds. The party's lawmaker Cho Kyoung-tae bluntly stated that if they do not sever ties with Yoon Suk Yeol, the election "will definitely fail."
On the other hand, the current National Assembly, where the Democratic Party holds a majority, will last until 2028. This means that even if the People Power Party candidate wins the presidential election, he or she must communicate and reconcile with the opposition-dominated National Assembly to avoid repeating the mistakes of Yoon Suk Yeol. The "supporting Yoon" candidate will not only fail to achieve this goal, but will also become a new impeachment target because of his unclear relationship with the "civil riot criminals."
A group of People Power Party lawmakers, represented by Cho Kyoung-tae and Kim Sang-ik, who are all members of the "Han faction," publicly raised these questions, apparently hoping that the leadership would choose another candidate.
Yoon Suk Yeol's "prosecutor friend" Han Dong-hoon was originally the successor chosen by Yoon Suk Yeol himself after he won the presidential election in 2022. In the past three years, Yoon Suk Yeol promoted Han Dong-hoon, who lacked political experience, to the position of Minister of Justice, and helped him become the youngest leader in the history of the People Power Party. A "Yoon faction" member of the parliament once made it clear to the media that Yoon Suk Yeol believed that Han Dong-hoon "could become the next presidential candidate."
But Han Dong-hoon, like Yoon Suk Yeol, is also a prosecutor with a "black or white" personality. After Kim Keon-hee's scandals, Han Dong-hoon and Yoon Suk Yeol fell out because he insisted on asking the "first lady" to publicly apologize and take responsibility. In December 2024, after Yoon Suk Yeol staged a martial law farce, the National Assembly successfully impeached Yoon Suk Yeol with the support of "Han faction" members; Han Dong-hoon was criticized by the party after this incident and resigned sadly. The two old friends "died together".
Now, with the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol passed by the Constitutional Court, Han Dong-hoon released a new book in a high-profile manner, "Han faction" lawmakers publicly condemned the "Yoon faction", and the conservative camp mainstream media represented by the "JoongAng Ilbo" also praised Han Dong-hoon for "maintaining the orthodoxy of conservatism", and there is a great potential for a comeback. It is worth noting that last summer, after the conflict with Yoon Suk Yeol was made public, Han Dong-hoon still won the party leader election with an absolute advantage of 60% of the votes, showing his appeal among the top leaders of the party.
In addition, there is a group of special "chameleon" veteran politicians in South Korean politics. They shuttle between the two major camps and have played a key role in the rise of Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, Yoon Suk Yeol and others. Its representatives, Kim Chong-in and Ahn Cheol-soo, have not been optimistic about Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk Yeol recently, but have praised Han Dong-hoon. Although Ahn Cheol-soo has announced his participation in this presidential election, judging from his past behavior, it is very likely that he will withdraw from the election midway and endorse a specific candidate. If the People Power Party cannot elect Han Dong-hoon or other "compromise candidates", these veteran politicians are likely to turn to support the Democratic Party of Korea, or split votes for conservative candidates by insisting on running for election.
On one side is the grassroots radical public opinion represented by the "Yoon faction", and on the other side is the high-level establishment and swing public opinion represented by the "Han faction". How will the leader of the People Power Party, Kwon Young-se, choose? One detail is: At present, facing the "Han faction"'s motion to expel Yoon Suk Yeol from the party and the "Yun faction"'s request for disciplinary action against "Han faction" lawmakers, the party leadership has put all the demands of both sides on hold and "will discuss them after the election."
Kwon Young-se had led the conservative camp through the crisis brought about by Park Geun-hye's "cronyism scandal". He knew very well that the "Yun faction" and "Han faction" now regarded each other as "criminals" and "traitors", and that choosing either side would lead to the split of the party. The only way was to choose another compromise candidate and firmly bind the "Yun faction" and "Han faction" into the common camp of the People Power Party.
At present, the most likely candidates to become compromise candidates are Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo. Both are senior politicians from the legal field and have announced their candidacy. Oh Se-hoon has served two terms as Seoul mayor. While attacking the progressive camp, he has also criticized Yoon Suk Yeol, almost copying the "Lee Jae-myung-style" path to success. Hong Joon-pyo once faced Moon Jae-in as the party leader and presidential candidate, and remained one of the leading figures in the party after his defeat. He once led the expulsion of Park Geun-hye from the party, but in Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment case, he stood up for him and was recognized by Yoon's radical supporters.
For Kwon Young-se, launching a compromise candidate is only the first step. What is more important is to let Yoon Suk Yeol and the "Yoon faction" hand over the power to direct the election to the party leadership. While putting aside the "Yoon-Han infighting", Kwon Young-se also made it clear at the leadership meeting on April 7th that if there is any "opposition to the party's position or criticism of the presidential candidate" during the election campaign, the party will take "very severe measures", including expulsion from the party.
Some analysts believe that Kwon Young-se hopes that Yoon Suk Yeol will "step down when faced with difficulties" and stop interfering with the leadership. As Cho Kyoung-tae said, "Former President Roh Moo-hyun showed a spirit of sacrifice by saying 'step on me' in order not to burden the party." However, according to the latest information disclosed by Yoon faction lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun, Yoon Suk Yeol not only has no intention of "sacrificing", but also "many people around him want to establish a new political party". That would be the situation that Kwon Young-se does not want to see the most.
Can Lee Jae-myung "fight against separatism"?
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is also having a hard time during the internal struggle of the People Power Party. On April 7th, Lee Jae-myung rejected the proposal of his party comrade, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik, to hold a constitutional referendum and a presidential election at the same time. The pro-progressive media pointed out that this means that the contradictions among the top leaders of the party have become public.
After Yoon Suk Yeol's "martial law coup" farce, Korean society generally demanded to amend the constitution and shorten the presidential term, and the mainstream of the Democratic Party of Korea also followed public opinion, but Lee Jae-myung, who was "about to become president", was not enthusiastic about this. He claimed that Korean politics should first focus on "ending the civil war" through presidential elections before considering institutional reforms, and that there were technical obstacles to referendums.
Regardless of whether Lee Jae-myung was sincere or not, the internal struggle between him and Woo Won-shik has been seized by Kwon Young-se. The top leaders of the People Power Party have expressed their support for Woo Won-shik's "same-day election and referendum" plan for several days, accusing Lee Jae-myung of looking for excuses in the face of the temptation of power. Judging from Lee Jae-myung's reluctant attitude, if he becomes president, he will never limit his power, because "if we miss this opportunity, the door to amending the presidential system will be closed forever."
The revision of the presidential system was originally a matter of "anti-Yoon", but now it has been directed to "anti-Lee", which fully demonstrates the generational differences between the leadership of the two camps. Most of the members of the progressive camp who followed former President Moon Jae-in have been squeezed out of the leadership core by Lee Jae-myung. The current leadership headed by Lee Jae-myung has not experienced as much political adversity as politicians such as Kwon Young-se and Kweon Seong-dong who have experienced the crisis of Park Geun-hye's administration.
There are also voices within the Democratic Party pointing out that after Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached, Lee Jae-myung failed to focus on "anti-Yoon" and instead impeached Acting President Han Duck-soo, who was known for being "non-partisan", angering the public who wanted the national government to stabilize as soon as possible. Since December 2024, the support rate of the People Power Party has been rising from a low of 24%, while the support rate of the Democratic Party has been falling from a high of 48%. By mid-January this year, the People Power Party even surpassed the Democratic Party in the Gallup poll with a comprehensive support rate of 39%. This is a new situation that has never occurred since Yoon Suk Yeol came to power.
In the face of the change in support rate, Lee Jae-myung announced that the Democratic Party of Korea "turned right", from "progressive" to "centrist conservative", and met with Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong. These words and deeds failed to attract many votes from the conservative camp, but instead caused controversy in the progressive camp. The latest poll reported by Yonhap News Agency on April 7th showed that the support rate of the Democratic Party of Korea was 44.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous survey; the support rate of the People Power Party was 35.7%. Although the gap between the two is still large, 90.9% of the People Power Party voters support the party to continue to govern. This means that the votes of the conservative camp have basically completed the "return".
In this regard, Kweon Seong-dong, the No. 2 figure in the People Power Party, said bluntly: "It's not that we did a good job, but that the Democratic Party's desire to seize power is (too great)." Yonhap News Agency quoted the analysis of a polling agency as saying that with the United States imposing a 25% tariff on South Korea, the ruling and opposition parties' practice of "focusing on political offensives and neglecting people's livelihood" will further lose the support of the people.
The support rates of the two major camps in South Korea were originally very close. In the 2022 presidential election, Yoon Suk Yeol only won 250,000 votes over Lee Jae-myung, with a lead of less than 0.8%. In the next 60 days, since the People Power Party and Yoon Suk Yeol are still difficult to separate, his support rate will be difficult to catch up to the level of 2022, but it is certain that Lee Jae-myung's lead will continue to shrink, which is enough to make some people in the Democratic Party eager to try.
On April 7th, Kim Doo-kwan, former governor of South Gyeongsang Province, became the first member of the Democratic Party to announce his candidacy for the presidential election. Kim Doo-kwan has participated in the party's primaries for presidential elections many times, so his appearance this time is not surprising. However, when he ran for the election, he publicly opposed "conducting the primary election in the manner of 'Lee Jae-myung will eventually be elected president'", which actually made him the spokesperson for the "anti-Lee" camp in the party.
Currently, the leadership of the Democratic Party of Korea hopes to quickly confirm Lee Jae-myung as the party's presidential candidate in a simple way, but the "anti-Lee" lawmakers hope to adopt a larger-scale national primary election to gain the ability to bargain with Lee Jae-myung on specific issues. Since February this year, Lee Jae-myung has met with "anti-Lee" leaders who he has not seen for a long time, including former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, Moon Jae-in's former chief of staff Im Jong-seok, and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon. However, the two sides failed to reach a consensus on the primary election method.
Lee Jae-myung has suffered from internal fighting many times. In the 2022 presidential election, he lost to Yoon Suk Yeol by a narrow margin due to internal fighting in the progressive camp. On the eve of the 2024 parliamentary elections, dozens of members of the Democratic Party of Korea advocated that "the next president must be able to avoid being arrested" and proposed "replacing Lee". After failing, they immediately left, which ultimately led to the progressive camp failing to win the 200 seats that could directly impeach Yoon Suk Yeol.
It is worth noting that due to the controversy faced by Yoon Suk Yeol and Lee Jae-myung, the support rates of some small parties have increased recently. The combined support rates of the three small progressive parties, led by the Rebuilding Korea Party led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, exceeded 9% in the latest polls. While appeasing the party, Lee Jae-myung must also persuade these brother parties who left because of "anti-Lee" not to launch their own presidential candidates. Otherwise, it is not impossible for the progressive candidates to win the majority of votes, but Lee Jae-myung to lose the election.
In the next 60 days, South Korea's presidential election still faces great uncertainty. In addition to the internal disputes between the two camps, the risk of violent attacks caused by political polarization and social division is also increasing. On February 13th, the Supreme Court of South Korea made a final judgment on Kim, the criminal who attempted to assassinate Lee Jae-myung in January 2024, and sentenced him to 15 years in prison.
At that time, the reason why Lee Jae-myung's security was flawed was that the South Korean police only provided special protection to major politicians during the statutory election period. Therefore, from now until the official registration day for the presidential election on May 11th, it will be another "most dangerous period" in South Korean politics.
Lee Jae-myung's chances of being elected are 78%, and he will become an imperial president
On the betting website Polymarket, the probability of Lee Jae-myung becoming the next president of South Korea has reached 78%, while the conservative camp's Kim Moon-soo is 5%, Lee Joon-seok 5%, Han Dong-hoon 5%, Hong Joon-pyo 3%, Oh Se-hoon 2%, and Ahn Cheol-soo 2%.
Converted into odds, Lee Jae-myung's odds of winning are around 1.25. The lower the odds, the more money is betting on his election.
Currently, there are many voices in South Korea suggesting that the constitution should be amended to appropriately weaken the power of the president and change the current "imperial president" model. However, although the president has great power, without the cooperation of the National Assembly, the scope of his power is also very limited and cannot be exerted. Yoon Suk Yeol is an obvious example.
On the other hand, South Korea's unicameral parliament also has considerable power. For example, it can easily initiate impeachment cases and has the right to recommend one-third of the personnel of the Constitutional Court and the Election Commission. Therefore, Kweon Seong-dong and others also compare the South Korean parliament to the imperial parliament.
Although National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik called for a constitutional referendum on June 3rd to change the current power distribution model, the possibility of a successful constitutional amendment in the near future is not great. Even if a referendum is held, its content will not change South Korea's current power-sharing model.
If Lee Jae-myung is elected, his term will end on June 3rd, 2030, and the next parliamentary election will be held in April 2028. The Democratic Party currently holds a majority of seats in the National Assembly, so in the next nearly three years, considering Lee Jae-myung's strong control over the Democratic Party, if he is elected, he will become an imperial president.
